AFC East
1.
Miami Dolphins
2.
Buffalo Bills
3.
New England Patriots
4.
New York Jets
The Dolphins lost Tyreek Hill this off-season and despite 21 guys leaving the roster this year, only 5 of them ended up on rosters elsewhere. This tells me that those weren't key departures. They replaced Tyreek with Amari Cooper and DJ Chark and I don't think we will see a noticeable difference. Waddle is a stud and whoever else is lining up alongside him is going to be the #2. The division is still young, and Miami is coming off a 12-win season and are the reigning AFC East Champs.
The Bills could make some noise and while I would argue that they're weaker in the short-term after losing Josh Allen, Penix can ball. On the surface Josh is better right now than Penix and there
should be a drop-off. While I think they're weaker, I don't think they win less than 6 games next year, I would argue they will be closer to .500.
The Patriots are still developing Drake Maye and had an opportunity to improve themselves this year, but decided to trade the 3rd overall pick to the New York Giants, and at a pretty cheap price, too. I don't think WR Ja'Lynn Polk or ROLB Micah McFadden are needle movers. I think they could have gotten a good haul this year, or could have traded back a few times to pick up some talent. They didn't and so I don't expect them to be much better than they were last year.
The Jets, coming off an 11 win season, finish in the basement after QB Aaron Rodgers retired and the Jets didn't find his replacement until the 3rd round. It's tough to win without a QB, and while they have some talent on the team, it's not enough to make up for the most important position in football. It's going to take some time for the Jets to be competitive unless they make a move for a QB at some point.
AFC North
1.
Baltimore Ravens
2.
Cincinnati Bengals
3.
Cleveland Browns
4.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It's tough debating between the Ravens and Bengals. I believe they're clearly the top 2 in this division, despite the Browns somehow winning the division last year. The deciding factor between Ravens and Bengals, for me, is defense. The Ravens had the 3rd best defense in points allowed last year but lost two big contributors in Odafe Oweh and Justin Madubuike. I think they give up more points this year but will still be a strong defense and will control the division. They also have Lamar Jackson and newly acquired Bijan Robinson on offense, they're a complete team.
The Bengals were average in points scored and points allowed last year, (14th and 15th, respectively), and I'm not sure if they got better this year. They got real young on the offensive line. Yes, they have Joe Burrow who will get rid of the ball to avoid sacks, but he will still get pressured pretty frequently, and I think that will disrupt the offense. I think the Bengals are close in team talent to Baltimore, but I think Baltimore is more ready to win right now.
The Browns won the division last year, and I have no idea how that happened. I cannot put a Desmond Ridder led team over teams led by Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Not a lot changed with the roster this off-season, but I feel like they overachieved last year and drop to 3rd in the division.
The Steelers have a new GM and a new QB, so the rebuild is under way. They drafted QB Kofi Odenigbo with the 10th overall pick, but aside from that, there wasn't a whole lot changed with the team. I would imagine they will lean heavily into HB Najee Harris to take pressure off the offense, so it will be some ball control offense with hopes they can make some stops on defense. It's a tough division and there will be some definite growing pains with a 59 AWR QB.
AFC South
1.
Houston Texans
2.
Jacksonville Jaguars
3.
Indianapolis Colts
4.
Tennessee Titans
The Texans didn’t make a lot of big splash plays this off-season. I’m banking on last year being an anomaly. CJ Stroud is a 90/91/90 QB, he has to produce better than 17 TDs to 14 INTs and a QB Rating of 72.5. That doesn’t make sense, and players with much worse attributes performed at a higher level. It could be for a lack of weapons. Nico Collins is very good, but aside from him and HB Joe Mixon I’m not impressed by any of their other guys as they’re either short or slower. LE Will Anderson Jr made the move to SS, and I’m curious how that will work out. It seemed like an odd move, I personally don’t believe Safeties are
that impactful, I would have preferred him at DE. The Texans brought in 2 older vet DEs this year and banking on experience to get them by. I think this division is a toss-up.
The Jaguars won the division last year and one of the most overrated QBs in the NFL, Trevor Lawrence, is not overrated here. He is still only 78 AWR, 82 THA. Brian Thomas Jr is an absolute stud. I think Gabe Davis is their next best option, they could get better there, but not unlike the Texans weapons. Etienne was very productive and will allow Jacksonville to lean on the run game. The Jaguars are solid defensively, but their OL is very shaky with only one guy above 80 OVR. That, paired with a QB under 80 AWR could cause some issues offensively for them.
The Colts have one of the deepest talent pools at WR in the league with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. Jonathan Taylor is a stud and the OL is pretty solid. They just need Richardson to improve. At 75 AWR, 79 THA he has a ways to go, but the weapons around him should be the environment he needs to succeed. He only had 150 pass attempts last year so it’s hard to judge his productivity, but it was a lost year of development for him. There’s talent at every position on defense. I think the Colts are close and with some QB play could turn some heads this year.
The Titans are expected to return their QB from last year, Will Levis, who threw 23 TDs to 29 INTs. Tony Pollard only averaged 3.5 YPC on the ground for them. They signed 5’9” Marquise Brown and traded for 31-year-old Tyreek Hill. Hill can still play at a high level with 97 SPD, 96 AGI, 96 ACC, but is not a long-term option. They have talent on defense but without a lot of depth. If they have injuries/suspensions they could feel the impacts of that. The defense was 27th in points allowed last year. I think they’re more talented than that, but I’m willing to bet their offense being 31st in Time of Possession put their defense in tough spots far too often.
AFC West
1.
Kansas City Chiefs
2.
Denver Broncos
3.
San Diego Chargers
4.
Oakland Raiders
The Chiefs will continue to lean on QB Patrick Mahomes, as they should. This year they lose WRs Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Marquise Brown. They drafted WR Gio Fallin at the 5th overall spot. I would guess that Montez Walker is their #2. Their TEs aren’t needle movers for me, but HB Isaiah Pacheco is very good and should provide the offense with some balance. They have some good talent on defense and will allow the Chiefs to play ball control football or air it out with Mahomes. With the Chargers trading their QB away, I think the Chiefs are comfortably in the driver’s seat for the division.
The Broncos come in at #2, and for similar reasons, as the Chargers are going rebuild. Nix is still developing and the offense has some average to good players. Nobody really jumps out at me. Javonte Williams isn’t big or fast and I think the WR I like the most from an attribute standpoint is Troy Franklin, and he’s coming off a 16 catch for 173 yard season. The OL isn’t particular strong either. It appears the Broncos know that Nix’s development will take some time and seem to be content with a patient approach. They still have $90m in cap space!! Spend it, you can’t carry it with you. Will Cook needs to open his purse and give his young QB some talent to work with!
The Chargers, fresh off a Super Bowl win, decided that repeating and hogging all the Super Bowls like the Chiefs do isn’t for them, and they elect for the challenge of a rebuild. Justin Herbert is shipped to St. Louis and the Chargers are rolling out #1 overall pick QB Jamal Castille. He has great THA for a rookie at 93, and 68 AWR is definitely workable. We all know, at least we should, that rookies progress at a faster rate. How quickly that rate is cannot easily be explained/measured, but it is a bit easier for them to earn progression. The same goes for lower OVR players. I think Castille will blossom quickly and can focus all the progression on his AWR. I suspect he will be in the mid-70s by year 2, which would put him in line with a lot of AFC teams after only 1 season of development. The roster around Castille is obviously good, they did just win a ring after all. DJ Chark is probably their biggest loss, aside from Herbert, but they brought in a lot of talent this off-season. I wouldn’t be surprised if a 2nd place finish is in the cards for San Diego, or as Ron Bergundy would say, “a whale’s vagina.”
The Raidaaaas spent some money this off-season, bringing in ¾ of the San Francisco 49ers secondary in Hufanga, Charvarious Ward and Deommodore Lenoir. They also added starting linebackers in Cody Barton and Damone Clark. They were the 30th defense in points allowed last year. They should definitely see some improvement as they have gotten better on paper. The concern, for me, is on offense. Aiden O’Connell is age 27 and only 73 AWR and 83 THA. They acquired WR Trey Palmer from Tampa Bay and while he can be productive, he’s not a game changer. Alvin Kamara was also acquired from the Saints and in the twilight of his career. Defensively they could give teams some fits, but on offense I don’t think they can be productive enough to win more than 6 games.
AFC Playoff Seedings
1.
Kansas City Chiefs
2.
Baltimore Ravens
3.
Miami Dolphins
4.
Houston Texans
5.
Cincinnati Bengals
6.
Buffalo Bills
Wild Card Round
over
over
Divisional Round
over
over
Championship Round
over
AFC Champions
